Holistic science in an environmental context 

Author: Nigel Brett

Introduction

This report explores chaos theory as a holistic science and how this affects our understanding of our environment and our relationship to it.

Definition of Chaos

Chaos theory, like any scientific theory, is an attempt to model the laws of nature as we experience them. The extra strength of chaos theory is to reveal the relationships between simplicity and complexity and between orderliness and randomness. Chaos theory helps us to understand why the behaviour of complex systems appears unpredictable.

Chaos theory presents a deterministic universe that obeys fundamental physical laws, but with a predisposition for disorder, complexity and unpredictability.

Many systems that have the freedom to constantly change are extremely sensitive to their initial state – position, velocity, and so on. Feedback within the system and with its environment (that is also changing) can amplify any slight differences in initial conditions so that wide variations of character can occur.

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Background & History

Traditionally, from the likes of Newton onward, most scientists have looked for the simplest view of the world around us. In the Newtonian model of the universe could be directly grasped and examined. For example Newton’s inverse square law for gravity, which he used to predict the orbits of planets, simplified what he observed to only deal with the relationship between two objects, so that he could formulate a mathematical model.

As science developed the more complex the models became; in physics dozens of sub-atomic particles were being discovered, particles were detected behaving as waves, and light behaving as particles. In addition huge amounts of information have been gathered from our neighbouring planets and moons and from the historical records of the earth itself.

From all this raw data simple underlying principles have been proposed; for example, that the universe started from nothing with a big bang and from that all time, mass, energy and space that we observe today can be predicted according to given rules. There are other models, but the scientific consensus is that this one seems to fit best with observed phenomena. The problem is that to use these rules to predict events and details in our everyday lives would require an impossible amount of computation.

The Newton and Laplace mathematical techniques for integration solved the simple two body problem, but except, for special cases, this doesn’t work for many bodies [4]; this was first noticed by Henri Poincare at the end of the 19^th century. There are also other forces besides gravity that have an effect on orbits, for example spin and, tidal effects have to be take into account. In 1981 Jack Wisdom applied chaos theory to the motion of asteroids, and his results matched the observed distribution of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter. This work could be used to predict asteroids that will impact Earth, however this can only be done if the exact starting points of all the bodies affecting the earth and the asteroid are known; an impossible task.

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The implications for environmental or biological systems

Modelling complexity and disorder reveals fundamental limits to human knowledge in an uncomfortable way. Because chaotic systems are so sensitive to initial conditions a complete knowledge requires measuring the position and velocity of every particle in the universe; and such measurement, even if possible, would itself affect the system.

Chaos seems to be responsible for maintaining order in the natural world. Feedback mechanisms sustain a dynamic balance and allow flexibility. This is seen in the natural self-organisation of systems such as our own heartbeat or the temperature of the Earth.

Gaia

One implication of modelling complex chaotic systems for the environment is shown in the Gaia hypothesis proposed by James Lovelock; this considers the Earth as a planet sized entity with properties that could not be predicted from the sum of its parts. The reasons for this as stated in [1] are:

"Life first appeared on Earth about 3,500 million years ago. From that time until now, the presence of fossils shows that the earth’s climate has changed very little. Yet the output of heat from the Sun, the surface properties of the Earth, and the composition of the atmosphere have almost certainly varied greatly over the same period.

The chemical composition of the atmosphere bears no relation to the expectations of steady-state chemical equilibrium. The presence of methane, nitrous oxide, and even nitrogen in our present oxidising atmosphere represents violation of the rules of chemistry to be measured in tens of orders of magnitude. Disequilibria on this scale suggest that the atmosphere is not merely a biological product, but more probably a biological construction: not living, but like a cat’s fur, a bird’s feathers, or the paper of a wasp’s nest, an extension of a living system designed to maintain a chosen environment. Thus the atmospheric concentration of gases such as oxygen and ammonia is found to be kept at an optimum value from which even small departures could have disastrous consequences for life.

The climate and chemical properties of the Earth now and throughout its history seem always to have been optimal for life…"

In 1982 James Lovelock simplified the Gaia hypothesis to provide a theory that could be modelled so that a scientific consensus could be agreed, based on scientific evidence and to give predictions that could be tested by scientific method. This model, produced with Andrew Watson, was called "Daisyworld"; it was published in Tellus in 1983. This demonstrated the positive and negative feedback mechanisms that life could use to modify its environment to its own benefit, and that this could come about through natural selection. Therefore as proposed in [2] "The tightly coupled system of life and its environment, Gaia, includes:

The implications following from the Gaia theory are, as James Lovelock says in [2], "Gaia theory provokes a view of the Earth where:

Life is a planetary-scale phenomenon. On this scale it is near immortal and has no need to reproduce.

There can be no partial occupation of a planet by living organisms. It would be as impermanent as half an animal. The presence of sufficient living organisms on a planet is needed for the regulation of the environment…

…Gaia draws attention to the fallibility of the concept of adaptation. It is no longer sufficient to say that "organisms better adapted than others are more likely to leave offspring." It is necessary to add that the growth of an organism affects its physical and chemical environment; the evolution of the species and the evolution of the rocks, therefore, are tightly coupled as a single, indivisible process.

Theoretical ecology is enlarged. By tacking the species and their physical environment together as a single system, we can …, build ecological models that are mathematically stable and yet include large numbers of competing species..."

 

Holistic approach to the environment

Gaia is a particular model for the whole biosphere. A more general implication is the need for a holistic approach characterised by considering a complete system, and not symptoms or effects exhibited by any of its parts individually. A mechanistic approach considers that components are self-contained with clear boundaries and that they can be considered to act in a pre-determined way in response to their environment independently of other pieces. The approaches are similar, the difference is in the level of reduction or complexity applied to enable the system(s) to be comprehended.

For example, large scale changes in land use in one region will affect the whole world. Yet even the most complete models currently available cannot predict what these effects will be, or what level of change can be tolerated by the system. An example in field of pesticides given by Rachel Carson [6]: the pesticide malathionis considered safe for mammals as an enzyme in the liver renders it relatively harmless; unfortunately other organo-phoshates can destroy this enzyme. The US food and Drug Administration discovered that the poisoning from combined chemicals could be 50 times as severe as predicted by adding the individual toxicities.

A holistic approach requires further investigation into how stable the current system is, what will perturb it and what might result from that. It is unlikely that a holistic approach will give a yes/no answer. Instead chaos theory needs to be used to assess possible outcomes and define "strange attractors".

A limited mechanistic theory does not have the scope to consider all the variables; it will be broken down into small, possibly very detailed, chunks whose response to changes of input can be definitely predicted. The problem is in how to put all these pieces together to complete the jigsaw.

A holistic theory can provide an idea of the finished picture and so enable all the pieces to be fitted in their correct place. Gaia, for example, has provided some edges, or boundaries, to the puzzle that can be easily recognised and used as a reference when looking to place a single piece in the whole picture. A holistic picture will also give clues as to what process links the pieces, and highlight possible gaps in current knowledge.

If it is not possible to control or predict outcomes central management then the best holistic approach is to devolve power to the point where many small actions can be taken in a quickly, responsive to the requirements of the whole system. In computing this model is used to run a screen-saver programme on the millions of small individual pcs which together result in solving complex problems like code-breaking or the Search for ExtraTerestrial Intelligence (SETI).

Another classic example of management of an unpredictable system is a rocket – A rocket is off course from the moment it is fired then on-board control systems adapt to circumstances so that it reaches its target.

Holistic design

Theories and models are helpful to our understanding of the complexities of the environment, but it is in their application to solutions design that the implications manifest.

One major school of design is permaculture. Permaculture is a name given by Bill Mollison to Permanent Agriculture [16], but is a methodology now applied to many other solutions affecting people and this planet.

Permaculture brings together many existing ideas but places an emphasis on copying natural ecosystems that have evolved with their surroundings and the planet to be sustainable. What is important are the connections between all the parts of the system, and how to include humans in this web. Permaculture is a way of looking at the whole system. Our approach is a key factor in creating a sustainable system, this is recognised by giving it a "space" in the design, zone00, within ourselves (zone 0 is the house, or centre of human activity; zone 5 is unmanaged land or wildeness). There is no definitive method of permaculture, it is a set of guidelines to be applied locally and individually. A good introduction is by Patrick Whitefield [14].

A holistic design has not only to include the natural world but also how people react to any solution. The following diagram by David Wann [5] shows many of the relationships between nature and culture in what he terms deep design. (The use of the term "deep" is not to be confused with Deep Ecology by Arnie Ness. It doesn’t have the philosophical rigour of deep ecology, as he starts from certain assumptions and a definition of good; and Arnie Ness is not referenced at all, probably because of the book’s U.S.centric approach).

figure 1. Deep design[5]

The International Institute of Environment and Development provides an example of a flexible approach to the environment based on local empowerment able to respond to chaotic conditions. The International Institute of Environment and Development has a Sustainable Agricultural and Rural Livelihoods Programme looked at 23 projects in Africa, Asia, Australia and Latin America; and 86 projects in East and Southern Africa [9], supported by the Swedish International Development Co-operation Agency.

This provided a 10-point plan for policy change:

1. Establish national policies that support sustainable agriculture, such as re-directing subsidies and grants …

2. Reform agricultural teaching establishments to encourage the formal adoption of participatory approaches.

3. Develop farmer-centred research and extension by supporting farmer-to-farmer exchanges and schemes for farmer training in their own communities.

4. Create policies which encourage the retention of economic surpluses in rural areas gained from the production and marketing of agricultural products.

5. Enhance non-agricultural incomes and off-farm employment in rural areas.

6. Decentralise and devolve authority from governments and aid agencies, while developing the capacity of local organisations to demand the resources and services they need.

7. Support rural women as producers and innovators by increasing their access to productive resources, savings and credit, agricultural information and formal education and training.

8. Secure property rights for peasant producers, especially through communal tenure systems, by protecting local access to and control of land and other productive resources.

9. Form or strengthen farmers’ organisations to encourage persistent co-operative action in agricultural production and resource management.

10. Increase local access to capital for investment in agriculture and resource management by avoiding land-tied credit and supporting establishment of local savings and credit schemes.

Human Limits

This poem by Goethe [7] is an example of how a holistic approach to the environment might be expressed, not by control, but with awe.

When the most ancient
Heavenly Farther
From rolling clouds
With a calm hand scatters
Lightning flashes like seed
Over the earth,

I kiss the lowest
Hem of his garment,
A childlike awe
Steadfast within me.
For against gods
No man alive
Should measure himself.

If he rises up
And with the crown of his head
Touches the stars,
Nowhere then do the groping
Soles of his feet adhere,
But clouds and winds
Make him their game.

If with firm,
Marrowy bones he stands
On the well-founded
Durable earth,
Not with so much as the oak
Or the vine
He can presume
To compare his height.
What distinguishes
Gods from human kind?

That many waves
Move on before gods,
An eternal ide;
Us the wave lifts,
Us the wave engulfs,
And we go down.

A little ring
Confines our lives,
And many generations
For ever they link
On to their being’s
Infinite chain.

An alternative, or additional, approach to how we can relate to a universe complex beyond our attempts to predict or control these words by Tibetan Buddhist, Lonngchenpa [3]

Since everything is but an apparition
Perfect in being what it is,
Having nothing to do with good or bad,
Acceptance or rejection,
One may well burst out in laughter.

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Summary

Julian Huxley wrote in a preface to Silent Spring [6] "Ecology in the service of man cannot be merely quantitative or arithmetical: it has to deal with total situations and must think in terms of quality as well as quantity."

The complexity and resulting chaotic behaviour of the earth’s environment makes it impossible to predict if a solution is sustainable. Flexibility to meet rapidly changing conditions must be encouraged; it cannot be an imposed package. Scientific and mathematical models can be used to inform discussions and help predict probabilities in possible scenarios. This includes providing guidelines to boundary conditions and strange attractors.

The problem is that people naturally want certainties in their lives and have looked to religion and science to provide that. The new certainty is that exact results cannot be guaranteed and individuals need to take a participatory and empowered role to manage systems. We may choreograph, or map, individual dancers, but the dance comes alive only when performed all together.

1. Gaia – A new look at life on earth. James Lovelock 1995 version
2. The Ages of Gaia – A biography of our living Earth. James Lovelock 1988
3. The dancing Wu Li Masters, Gary Zukav, ISBN 0-553-26382-x
4. Is the Solar System stable, Carl Murray, the New Scientist guide to chaos, ISBN 0-14-014571-0
5. Deep Design, David Wann, ISBN 1-55963-420-0
6. Silent Spring, rachel Carson. ISBN 0-14-027371-9
7. Poems & Epigrams, Goete, translated by Michael Hamburger, ISBN 0 85646 100 8
8. Sustaining the harvest. John Thompson & Fiona Hinchcliffe. People & the Planet Vol. 7 No.1
9. Environmental Evolution – effects of the origin and evolution of life on planet Earth. Edited by Lynn Margulis and Lorraine Olendzenski. ISBN 0-262-13273-7
10. Permaculture in a Nutshell. Patrick Whitefield
11. Environmental Evolution – effects of the origin and evolution of life on planet Earth. Edited by Lynn Margulis and Lorraine Olendzenski. ISBN 0-262-13273-7
12. Introduction to Permaculture. Bill Mollison & Reny Mia Slay. 1991

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Last modified: March 21, 2000